OPEC remains upbeat on global oil demand growth

Story By Williams Agyapong On October 14, 2025, 4:29 AM

OPEC remains bullish on global oil demand growth for this year and next as it continues to unwind its crude production cuts.

The cartel kept unchanged its 2025 and 2026 oil demand growth forecasts in its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for October published on Monday.

In the report, OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by about 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) this year from 2024, and reach on average 105.1 million bpd, reflecting continued robust economic growth. The view, unchanged from last month’s report, is driven by expectations of 1.2 million bpd demand growth in China, India, and other Asian markets.

“The continued robust economic activity in Other Asia, continued recovery in global air travel, and expected healthy petrochemical feedstock requirements will all be keys to oil demand growth in 2025,” OPEC said in the October report.

“However, uncertainties, including inflation levels, monetary tightening measures and sovereign debt levels, are to be monitored closely,” the cartel noted.

Next year, global oil demand is set to grow by 1.4 million bpd compared to this year, also unchanged from the September assessment of the oil-producing cartel. Emerging markets will drive next year’s demand growth, too. Average global oil demand will reach 106.5 million bpd next year, OPEC reckons.

In terms of products, gasoline is expected to lead oil demand growth at around 430,000 bpd year-over-year in 2026, followed by jet/kerosene demand which is set to grow by about 360,000 bpd. Petrochemical feedstock demand is forecast to grow by a combined 400,000 bpd, while diesel is projected to increase by some 190,000 bpd.

OPEC’s bullish demand view contrasts with warnings from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said in its September monthly report that global stocks are forecast to rise by an “untenable” 2.5 million bpd on average in the second half of 2025, “as supply far outstrips demand.” Yet, the IEA noted that geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could alter market balances that currently point to a glut.