Having endured the worst economic turbulence, Ghana’s economy is expected to rebound in 2024.
According to IC Research, it inflation forecast suggests a non-linear but general decline in inflation towards the mid-teens by 2024, despite recent elevation in foreign exchange pressures.
The expected general disinflation outlook, it said will sustain the recovery in the price-sensitive manufacturing sector in 2024 as the rebound to positive growth in 2023 (+0.9% year-on-year) from a contraction of 2.5% in 2022.
“Having endured the worst of recent economic shocks with the ongoing policy adjustments delivering modest signs of macro-level improvements, we perceive favourable conditions for a rebound in economic activity in 2024.”
“Our inflation forecast suggests a non-linear but general decline in inflation towards the mid-teens by 2024, despite recent elevation in FX [foreign exchange] pressures. We expect the general disinflation outlook to sustain the recovery in price-sensitive manufacturing sector in 2024 as the rebound to positive growth in 2023 (+0.9% year-on-year) from a contraction of 2.5% in 2022 gives us optimism for 2024”, it explained.
Furthermore, IC Research said it expect the construction sector to benefit from a revived public investment post-external debt restructuring deal while election-induced constructions add further tailwind to growth in industry.
In the service sector, it said it remain bullish on Information and Communication subsector with growth forecast to remain in double digits despite anticipated moderation.
“Our optimism hinges on the ongoing investment and expansion in network infrastructure by the major telecoms sector operators while demand for data services continues to grow. We also expect demand for hospitality and transport services to strengthen on the back of the upcoming electioneering activities in the lead up to the December [2024] elections, it added.
“Consequently, we believe the slowing momentum in Ghana’s growth rate has bottomed-out with the economy primed for a modest recovery in 2024. We thus reiterate our 2024 growth forecast range of 2.8% – 3.8% (midpoint: 3.3%)”, it concluded.
Ghana recorded a real GDP growth rate of 2.9% in 2023. This represented the second consecutive year of slowdown in annual GDP expansion after posting a 3.8% growth in 2022 from 5.1% in 2021.