Light Crude Oil Futures settled at $63.96 as of Thursday’s close, marking a mild rebound but still reflecting broader weakness in market structure.
The week was shaped by several high-impact fundamental events—none of which proved decisive enough to shift the balance away from oversupply and tepid demand. Traders were focused on Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting, but until concrete action disrupts physical flows, the dominant pressure remains rooted in inventories and production.
Trump-Putin Meeting Raises Risk, But Market Demands Proof
The most closely watched event of the week is Friday’s planned summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Trump has threatened “severe consequences” should Putin fail to pursue peace in Ukraine, including potential secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude—particularly China and India.
India alone sourced roughly 1.8 million barrels per day from Russia in the first half of the year, amounting to 37% of its total crude imports. Targeting these flows would represent a major shift in global balances, particularly for medium sour grades.
However, the market has shown skepticism. Traders remain unconvinced that Trump will follow through, given past patterns of backing away from aggressive rhetoric. Without formal sanctions or actual export disruptions, the geopolitical risk is being treated as a background factor—not a directional force.
