Global tariff war: Trump’s tariffs bite hard and the numbers don’t lie

Global trade is slowing and one of the biggest culprits is President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) now projects a 0.2% drop in global goods trade in 2025, a sharp reversal from its earlier 2.7% growth forecast.

The cause? Rising trade tensions, sweeping tariffs, and widespread uncertainty triggered largely by the U.S.’s new trade posture.

Nowhere is the impact more severe than in North America, where trade is expected to plunge by over 10%.

The U.S. has imposed a blanket 10% tariff on nearly all foreign imports, which took effect on April 5.

China has retaliated with tariffs of up to 145% on American goods, deepening what WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala calls a “really worrying” decoupling between the world’s two largest economies.

This is more than a bilateral spat, it’s a global disruption.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts global growth will slow to 2.3% in 2025, just below the 2.5% threshold often associated with recession.

As WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa warns, “Trade policy uncertainty has a significant dampening effect on trade flows.”

It reduces exports, shrinks business investment, and stalls economies. Consumers pay more, businesses struggle to plan, and jobs are lost.

One of the hardest-hit regions is Ghana, where exporters are bracing for the fallout.

The new U.S. tariffs threaten some of Ghana’s most valuable non-traditional exports including processed cocoa, garments, textiles, cashew, shea butter, and fresh produce.

Ghana’s Ministry of Trade warns the move could reverse gains made under trade agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has given Ghanaian goods duty-free access to U.S. markets.

The garment and textile sector, in particular, faces rising costs and stiffer competition from low-cost producers elsewhere.

Agricultural exports—including yam, fruits, and vegetables—are also at risk.

Exporters fear the added cost will force them to lower prices or lose U.S. buyers altogether.

This could undermine Ghana’s export diversification efforts and strain its foreign exchange earnings.

Analysts are calling on Ghana to explore alternatives, particularly through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), to buffer the blow.

There’s a human cost, too. Every trade slowdown trickles down—shrinking family budgets, tightening job markets, and dimming futures. Even UK officials have warned of lower household incomes because of US tariffs.

Trump’s tariffs were pitched as a way to revive U.S. manufacturing.

But the reality is far different.

They’ve disrupted supply chains, increased costs, and injected volatility into the global economy.

The numbers don’t lie: Global trade is shrinking, and Trump’s trade war is a major reason why.

Without a shift in direction, both developed and developing economies will continue to suffer the consequences of this protectionist gamble.