IMF Warns Trade Disputes Threaten Global Growth, Oil Industry

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva urged swift resolution of trade disputes Thursday, citing President Trump’s aggressive tariffs—145% on China, 10% globally—as a drag on global growth. 

The IMF has cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% and its U.S. growth forecast to 1.8%, with recession odds rising to 40%.

Uncertainty is hindering business investment and consumer spending, with poorer nations being hit the hardest.

Financial markets rallied Wednesday on hopes of U.S.-China tariff relief, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling a potential deal.

Weakening global demand could further depress oil prices, already down 8% on the month, undermining Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” push, as U.S. shale producers need $65/barrel for profitable drilling, per the IEA.