Libya Remains on Edge as Oil Majors Return

We continue to watch Libya unravel as rival power centers attempt to reassert territorial and institutional control, but international oil majors are re-engaging nonetheless, and analysts like to opine that their big oil money could help stabilize the country.

That is a possibility; however, the reverse is currently more likely unless Benghazi and Tripoli find a way to split the spoils (as the only thing that would prevent another civil war).

The Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU), led by interim Libyan PM Dbeibah, is now in a direct standoff with the Special Deterrence Force (RADA) militia group, which it has accused of sheltering over 120 wanted individuals, including an ICC-indicted commander. In a public ultimatum, Dbeibah has demanded that RADA relinquish control over Mitiga Airport and its adjoining prison facilities. RADA has responded by declaring a “war of survival,” signaling a willingness to escalate militarily if challenged.

This new confrontation, which comes after a resurgence of violent militia clashes in Tripoli in May, tells us that Dbeibah is losing his grip on the GNU. RADA is not a militia that is traditionally aligned with the Haftar camp, Dbeibah’s eastern rival. Instead, this is a sign of Dbeibah’s weakening control and his dwindling ability to enforce chain-of-command. His call for RADA to vacate Mitiga is not a confident assertion of power, it’s a provocation that risks showing how little control he has.