Oil Markets Await Clear Signals From OPEC+

WTI futures ended Thursday’s session just below a $62.59 pivot, paring earlier gains as a late-week rally fizzled.

Crude prices initially rose following a U.S. trade court ruling that overturned broad Trump-era tariffs, which briefly lifted sentiment across risk assets.

However, the upside lacked conviction, with futures retreating into the close and pushing prices down roughly 1% for the week.

Brent tracked similarly. The subdued response signals a market lacking directional confidence, with traders opting to stay sidelined ahead of clearer signals from OPEC+ and geopolitical developments.

OPEC+ Meeting Takes Center Stage—But Direction Still Unclear

All attention now turns to OPEC+, with a formal decision on July production expected over the weekend. While analysts expect a 411,000 bpd increase, the outcome remains uncertain. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister downplayed any formal discussion on output hikes, indicating possible internal pushback.

The group faces a balancing act: defending market share without overwhelming fragile demand. Rystad and ING see upside in summer consumption, but whether OPEC+ will respond with aggressive supply additions or maintain restraint is still unclear. Until this is resolved, the market is unlikely to break out of its current range.

Crude Stockpiles Fall, But No Breakout Follow-Through

U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, sharply contrasting with forecasts for a slight build. Higher crude exports and pre-holiday gasoline demand contributed to the draw. Refined products followed suit, with gasoline stocks dropping 2.4 million barrels and distillates falling to their lowest levels since 2005.

Despite this bullish data, crude prices failed to sustain their gains. The lack of follow-through highlights a market more focused on upcoming supply headlines than on recent inventory trends. It also suggests that fundamentals alone aren’t enough to fuel a sustained rally without broader confirmation.

Sanctions, Outages Add Tension—but Market Waits for Action

Several supply risks remain in play. Chevron has halted Venezuelan production after losing its U.S. export license, removing nearly 290,000 bpd from the market. In Canada, wildfires continue to disrupt oil and gas operations in Alberta. And Washington is reportedly weighing new sanctions on Russian crude, which could further limit global flows.

Iranian crude also remains sidelined, with no breakthrough in nuclear talks. Yet despite this tightening backdrop, the market has not aggressively priced in these risks, waiting instead for actual disruptions or policy shifts to materialize.

Demand Growth Signals Mixed—Focus Shifts to Driving Season

Gasoline demand in the U.S. jumped to 9.45 million bpd last week, a clear signal of strength ahead of the summer driving season. But China remains a concern, with the IEA citing persistently weak demand trends that could cap upside potential.

Rystad forecasts that demand will outpace supply by up to 700,000 bpd from May to August, but traders appear cautious about baking that into prices without confirmation. For now, expectations are supportive—but not compelling enough to drive a breakout.

Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures

Trend Indicator Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $64.40 will change the main trend to up. A trade through $54.01 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The market has been trading inside this range for five weeks, suggesting traders are waiting for a catalyst.

The long-term range is $51.98 to $84.43. Its 50% level is $68.21. This is major resistance. Trading on the bearish side of this key level is a sign of weakness. Additional resistance is the 52-week moving average at $67.63. The two form a resistance cluster.

The short-term range is $71.17 to $54.01. Its pivot at $62.59 is resistance. Traders tried to overcome this level this week, but failed to attract enough major players to sustain the move.

The minor range is $54.01 to $64.40. Its pivot is $59.20. The market is currently on the strong side of this level but it needs to hold above it to maintain the current momentum.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending June 6 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $62.59.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $62.59 will signal the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough momentum, we could see a near-term rally into the swing top a $64.40. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up, putting the 52-week moving average at $67.63 on the radar.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $62.59 will indicate the presence of sellers, but taking out 59.20 with conviction could trigger an acceleration to the downside with major targets coming in at $54.83 to $54.01.

Next Week’s Oil Market Outlook: Neutral Until OPEC+ and Policy Catalysts Hit

The crude market enters next week on neutral footing. Price action has stalled beneath resistance, and while supply risks and stockpile draws offer support, buyers are showing hesitation. The failure to sustain Thursday’s rally highlights a lack of conviction—and a readiness to sell into strength.

The upcoming OPEC+ decision and any shift in sanctions policy are potential catalysts, but until those hit, traders are likely to remain rangebound. A confirmed production increase could keep a lid on gains, while a surprise in favor of extended cuts would be needed to trigger a meaningful rally.

For now, the market bias is neutral, with both bulls and bears looking for a reason to act. Traders should expect volatility around the OPEC+ outcome and be prepared for sharp moves—once a catalyst emerges.

The “neutral” outlook is supported by the weekly chart with WTI crude oil stuck in the $62.59 to $59.20 trading range.