OPEC+ output hike and trade frictions send oil prices tumbling

Light crude oil futures posted steep losses this week, with prices sliding over 5% to settle near $63.85.

The sharp selloff was fueled by a wave of bearish fundamental developments—including an OPEC+ supply boost, escalating trade disputes, softer U.S. crude exports, and uncertainty surrounding Russian energy sanctions. Each factor contributed to a deteriorating sentiment across the energy complex, driving futures to their lowest levels in nearly two months.

The weekly slide was compounded by a steady flow of bearish news rather than a single shock event. Daily headlines delivered a succession of blows to market sentiment, undermining any attempt at recovery rallies and reinforcing downside pressure across crude benchmarks.

OPEC+ Supply Increases Undermine Tight Market Narrative

The most consistent and influential bearish driver this week came from OPEC and its allies. The coalition confirmed it will raise crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, marking a complete reversal of its largest output cut. Although the increase was widely anticipated, it was made official at a time when the market was struggling to maintain upside momentum.

According to Goldman Sachs, the actual realized supply boost may be closer to 1.7 million barrels per day when factoring in adjusted baselines and compliance gaps. Nonetheless, the market interpreted the announcement as a clear signal that OPEC+ expects more balanced fundamentals moving forward.