Crude stayed range-bound this week, with prices stuck between weak demand signals and pockets of supply support.
While inventories gave bulls a reason to lean in, trade uncertainty and underwhelming sanctions action kept a lid on any breakout.
The EU dropped another round of sanctions on Russia, targeting refined products made from Russian crude in third countries.
The market barely blinked.
Enforcement looks flimsy, and traders don’t expect flows to dry up. Moscow’s oil is still moving, and desks aren’t pricing in a supply crunch.
Add to that fresh talk from the U.S. about possible direct sanctions on Russian crude exports. That’s a longer-term story—nothing actionable for now. The market is treating it as background noise.
Iran’s nuclear talks with Europe restarted in Istanbul. Traders flagged it, but it’s not moving barrels yet. If talks collapse, we could see tighter enforcement on Iranian exports. Until that happens, this is just headline risk—not a supply driver.
Tariff Headlines Keep Buyers on the Sidelines
The big drag this week was trade tension. The U.S. is threatening 30% tariffs on EU goods if no deal gets done by August 1. Brussels is prepping a response, and that has demand desks nervous. No one wants to get long crude if global trade slows.
MUFG called out growing urgency in negotiations, and even with a softer dollar.
