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Why Ashanti Region is the powerhouse of Ghana’s elections

The 2020 election is over but the dust is yet to settle as the National Democratic Congress raises concerns about the credibiity of the results.

Apart from the 2008 elections, it is the most competitive elections in Ghana in recent history.

A critical look at the numbers shows the importance of the Ashanti Region to the fortunes of the ruling, NPP and the country’s largest opposition, the NDC.

 What the figures say 

The NDC won nine regions out of the 16 regions. The governing NPP won the remaining seven regions.

When you subtract the NPP votes obtained from the NDC votes obtained, these are the differences;

  1. Bono East – 60,353
  2. Greater Accra – 73,310
  3. Northern Region – 66,587
  4. Oti region – 77,156
  5. Savanna – 63,639
  6. Upper West – 117,742
  7. Upper East – 165,162
  8. Volta – 506,027
  9. Western North – 21,316

Total = 1,033,550

The Oti Region and Volta gave NDC combined votes of 583,183

Ashanti Region alone gave NDC 653,149.

The difference between the NPP and the NDC in the Ashanti region is 1,142,675

Cearly, the swing region perspective is over hyped. Their margins DO NOT change much. Adding the difference in Central, Western and Greater Accra regions is 189, 460. Wining the swing regions isn’t enough.

  1. You’ve to win and win bigly. Elections are won with margins not the number of regions.

 

  1. Ashanti Region votes cancelled out all the votes’ difference of the NDC in the 9 regions it won and had extra, 109,125 votes. This is why the Ashanti NDC always wants a targeted 30%. They had 26.1% of the votes. That percentage gave them more votes than the Oti and Volta region combined.

 

  • Oti Region and Volta gave NDC combined votes of 583,183
  • Ashanti Region alone gave NDC 653,149

 

  1. At this juncture and per that data, the only region that can help the NPP break the 8 year cycle jinx/trend going into 2024 is the Ashanti Region.

 

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