World Bank predicts significant drop in global food prices in 2025

The World Bank has recently released its April 2024 Commodity Outlook Report, which predicts a substantial drop in global food prices in 2024, with a projected 6 per cent decrease, followed by an additional 4 per cent decline in 2025.

This decrease is mainly attributed to lower prices for grains, oils, and meals, while other foods are expected to see price gains in 2024. However, 2025 is projected to bring broad-based declines in food prices.

The grains price index is forecasted to fall by 11 per cent in 2024, driven by higher global grain supplies. Wheat prices are expected to decline by 15 per cent in 2024 due to elevated production, with a further 2 per cent decrease in 2025.

These projections come amidst strong export competition and marginally higher production, countered by somewhat greater consumption and the lowest end-of-season stocks-to-use ratio in eight years.

Global maize production is set to reach an all-time high in the 2023–24 seasons, while global rice production in 2023-24 remains flat, with the stock-to-use ratio falling to the lowest level in three years.

Due to tight global markets and India’s export restrictions, rice prices are forecast to rise by 8 per cent (year-on-year) in 2024.

In the Ghanaian context, the reverse in food disinflation is evident as the food inflation rate shot up, moving from 27.0 per cent in February to 29.6 per cent in March 2024.

This rise in food inflation comes amidst ongoing concerns about food insecurity in the sub-Saharan region. As global food prices are expected to decrease, it remains to be seen how these changes will impact Ghana’s food market and the overall food security situation in the country.