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2020 elections: Three surveys tip Akufo-Addo to win

Former President John Mahama (L) and President Nana Akufo-Addo (R)

Three surveys conducted by different entities have predicted a win for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential candidate, President Nana Akufo-Addo, in the 2020 elections.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), pollster Ben Ephson and the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana have all scored Mr Akufo-Addo higher than the National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer, former President John Dramani Mahama.

The two old rivals will face off again in the December 7 elections with Mr Akufo-Addo the victor in their first encounter in 2016.

It was the first win for Mr Akufo-Addo who had failed twice previously and the first loss for Mr Mahama who had never lost a national political election.

University of Ghana

A survey by the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana has predicted a 51.7% victory for President Nana Addo Akufo-Addo for the upcoming polls.

The latest survey by the Department of Political Science of the University of Ghana released barely two weeks to the election said the President will garner 51.7% while his closest opponent, NDC presidential candidate, will get 47.1% of the votes cast.

The researchers sampled 11,949 respondents interviewed nationwide.

According to the report those who doubted that the NPP could fulfil its 2020 manifesto constituted 39.7% of respondents.

According to the research team, “These voters have taken a firm decision to vote for these candidates in the election. When pushed to indicate how sure they are with the decision to vote for the candidates, a whopping 80.9% said they are very sure while 11.9% are relatively (somewhat sure) of voting for their candidate.”

Ben Ephson

Mr Akufo-Addo’s score was a little higher in Mr Ephon’s poll as the incumbent got 52.6%. The Managing Editor of the Daily Dispatch Newspaper predicts 45.7% for Mr Mahama.

Mr Epshon’s prediction of a win for Mr Mahama in 2016 backfired while the forecast from the University of Ghana (UG) played out in 2016.

His respondents were drawn from Greater Accra, Central and part of Western regions with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.

With regards to the Convention People’s Party (CPP), which have promised to give the two main political parties ‘an electric shock’ come December 7, the pollster said he would be surprised if any of the 10 candidates including CPP are able to pull 4%.

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

EIU which projected victory for Mr Akufo-Addo in its April 2020 report said it “expects the NPP to retain power, as the party is seen as a better custodian of the economy than the opposition National Democratic Congress”.

They attributed their forecast to the government’s “ambitious industrialisation programme” which they said was “enjoying some success, with investment expected to recover once the virus subsides”.

EIU explained that the campaign for the 2016 election was dominated by public concerns over a faltering economy, which many Ghanaians still associate with Mr Mahama.

The groups said the NPP has focused on infrastructure development, such as improving internet and electricity access, as well as roads, in rural areas and outlined ambitious growth plans for cash-crop yields, which would bolster rural incomes.

Despite the uncertainties posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the “Economist Intelligence Unit believes that it will be difficult for the NDC under Mr Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy”.

“We, therefore, expect Mr Akufo-Addo and the NPP to secure re-election. However, if the NDC can present a coherent challenge and hold the NPP to account on its unfulfilled campaign promises—such as faster progress on infrastructure development—the elections could be closely contested”.

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