The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a research and analysis group, has predicted a victory for the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the 2024 general elections.
In the latest report titled ‘Africa Outlook 2024’, the EIU said Ghana will likely experience a power transfer from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) to the NDC.
The EIU report attributed the change in government to economic hardship.
“Ghana is likely to experience a transfer of power from the ruling New Patriotic Party to the opposition National Democratic Congress, largely driven by declining living standards, limited job opportunities and poor public services,” the report said.
Former President Mahama is seeking to return to office on the ticket of the NDC, while Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia will lead the NPP for the 2024 polls.
The NPP hopes to break the eight-year cycle jinx, where political parties have been unable to stay in office beyond two terms since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1992.
The EIU, an international Economic and Political Research Consultancy group, previously predicted correctly the outcome of Ghana’s election in 2020.
In the last prediction before the 2020 elections, the EIU said: “The campaign for the 2016 election was dominated by public concerns over a faltering economy, which many Ghanaians still associate with Mr. Mahama. As a result, The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that it will be difficult for the NDC under Mr. Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy, especially as the country’s growth outlook is fairly strong. We, therefore, expect Mr. Akufo-Addo and the NPP to secure re-election in 2020. However, if the NDC can present a coherent opposition and hold the NPP to account on an unfulfilled campaign promise —particularly on infrastructure development, as well as private sector development such as job creation and industrialization, where progress has been generally slow and success patchy—the election could be closely contested.”
President Nana Akufo-Addo won the polls with 6,730,587 votes (51.30%), while Mr Mahama garnered 6,213,182 (47.36%).
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Find the full EIU report below.