Goldman Sachs Does Not Expect OPEC to Alter Its Production Agreement

Goldman Sachs analysts expect OPEC to stick to its production output reduction agreement at its next meeting, revising an earlier stance that the cartel may partially unwind the cuts.

“While our interpretation of OPEC+ communication is that no final decision has been made, we now expect Saudi crude supply to remain flat at 9 mb/d (million barrels per day) in July (vs. 9.2 previously),” Goldman said, as quoted by Reuters.

The revision followed the publication of data showing that global oil inventories were higher than expected, suggesting the market is not as tight as OPEC would have liked it.

As for prices, the investment bank’s analysts reiterated their forecast price range of $75 to $90 per barrel for this year, with the 2025 average seen at $82 for a barrel of Brent crude.

Earlier this week, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ was still studying whether to raise oil production but it would act on supply if necessary.

The possibility to raise supply is still being reviewed, Russia’s top oilman told Interfax.

“It always depends on the current situation, the balance of supply and demand,” Novak said.

“Everything is being analyzed. Right now, you don’t need to predict anything, you just need to see how the market feels,” he added.

Novak also said that OPEC+ participants “are constantly monitoring the situation, and this is our plan for the second quarter, we agreed with our colleagues that these voluntary cuts can be adjusted to boost supply if necessary.”

According to Goldman’s forecasting model, there is a 37% chance of OPEC and its partners in OPEC+ reversing any of the cuts at the June meeting. It is scheduled for the first of the month ahead of the expiry of the current term of the supply reduction deal that aims to remove 2.2 million bpd from the global market.