The current state of the crude oil market is marked by a downward trend, with both the international benchmark Brent crude and the U.S. benchmark WTI crude oil on track for a significant weekly decline.
This downturn is driven by concerns over demand and a diminishing war-risk premium, intensified by recent geopolitical events.
Economic Influences and Market Reactions
Compounding the market’s woes, recent comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about potential future interest rate hikes have unsettled expectations for strong demand in both stock and crude oil markets. The global economic slowdown, marked by October’s peak in 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields and deteriorating business conditions in key economies, is exerting additional downward pressure on oil prices. Despite growth in the U.S. economy, concerns persist over crude oil demand growth.
China’s Economic Data and Inventory Surges
In China, difficulties in managing disinflation and a contraction in exports have cast doubt on the prospects for a robust economic recovery, crucial given China’s status as a leading commodity consumer. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories reportedly saw a substantial increase of 11.9 million barrels in the week leading up to November 3, marking a significant stockpile growth.
Market Performance and Outlook
December WTI crude oil is displaying its weakest performance since the late June OPEC? decision.